Paul Ryan May Want to Quit After Looking at This Chart

The House speaker may maintain his majority—but lose his most loyal members.

J. Scott Applewhite/AP

For indispensable reporting on the coronavirus crisis, the election, and more, subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily newsletter.


Most pollsters agree that the Republicans are likely to maintain control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming election. Yet according to a new analysis, House Speaker Paul Ryan could wind up with a motley majority full of rebels who stymie his leadership.

Washington superlobbyist Bruce Mehlman looked at the makeup of the House GOP caucus and found that the 22 House Republicans who are most antagonistic to Ryan’s agenda (members who voted with the leadership less than four times on 11 key votes) are safe in the upcoming election. Meanwhile, all of the at-risk Republicans are either Ryan loyalists (28) or what Mehlman has dubbed “persuadables” (15)—lawmakers who fall somewhere in between the other two categories.

http://mehlmancastagnetti.com

Mehlman put together this analysis as part of a presentation on why it is urgent for Congress to tackle pressing issues such as passing a budget, approving funding to fight the spread of the Zika virus, and spending on Louisiana flood relief. There are 33 days left on the legislative calendar—after which, as Mehlman’s presentation suggests, Ryan may have a difficult time corralling his caucus to do much of anything.

DOES IT FEEL LIKE POLITICS IS AT A BREAKING POINT?

Headshot of Editor in Chief of Mother Jones, Clara Jeffery

It sure feels that way to me, and here at Mother Jones, we’ve been thinking a lot about what journalism needs to do differently, and how we can have the biggest impact.

We kept coming back to one word: corruption. Democracy and the rule of law being undermined by those with wealth and power for their own gain. So we're launching an ambitious Mother Jones Corruption Project to do deep, time-intensive reporting on systemic corruption, and asking the MoJo community to help crowdfund it.

We aim to hire, build a team, and give them the time and space needed to understand how we got here and how we might get out. We want to dig into the forces and decisions that have allowed massive conflicts of interest, influence peddling, and win-at-all-costs politics to flourish.

It's unlike anything we've done, and we have seed funding to get started, but we're looking to raise $500,000 from readers by July when we'll be making key budgeting decisions—and the more resources we have by then, the deeper we can dig. If our plan sounds good to you, please help kickstart it with a tax-deductible donation today.

Thanks for reading—whether or not you can pitch in today, or ever, I'm glad you're with us.

Signed by Clara Jeffery

Clara Jeffery, Editor-in-Chief

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest