After being cheated out of her rightful place in the rotation last week, here she is: Hopper, queen of the garden. Or maybe huntress extraordinaire. Yesterday she caught yet another lizard and hauled it into the house as a plaything, a mighty deed that, as usual, went very, very unappreciated. Luckily, Hilbert was around, and he decided to pick up the lizard and trot it back outside. In the end, everyone was happy except the lizard.

Which of these do you think is a fairer representation of how the United States compares to the rest of the world? You may vote in comments.

Here’s the coronavirus death toll through May 7. Switzerland and Germany are both low enough now that they can start to ease up on social distancing and instead control the virus via test-and-trace. No one else is very close, although France is getting there. The United States, of course, is light years away from being able to ease up on social distancing, but we’re doing it anyway. In the meantime, our numbers continue to plateau as we wait for the inevitable catastrophe coming our way in a couple of weeks.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here. The Public Health Agency of Sweden is here.

Well, it looks like the nation’s press decided to ignore me:

This is from the Washington Post. The New York Times is similar. Elsewhere, the LA Times managed to restrict its comparison to the Great Depression to a subhead, while the Wall Street Journal called April’s unemployment rate a “record” but avoided Great Depression references altogether.

I’ll say it again: this is an artificial number that bears no resemblance to the Great Depression. It is a disservice to suggest otherwise.

I realize this is pointless, but I have to say it anyway. On Friday morning the BLS will release employment numbers for April. They will show something like eleventy jillion jobs lost, which will prompt banner headlines everywhere. Worst Job Loss Since Great Depression! Unemployment at Record High!

This is ridiculous. It’s like passing Prohibition and then following up with a breathless headline about people buying less booze. I mean, if you literally order 30 million people to stop working, then of course the BLS is going to report that 30 million jobs have been “lost.” It’s completely meaningless.

So is there any chance we could all go easy on this? You know, go ahead and report it, but do it in context and not in 100 point type? That would be great. Thanks.

Isn’t this exactly what the White House has spent the past two months accusing China of doing?

If we just deny that it exists, then it doesn’t exist. This works for Donald Trump in so many other areas of life that I suppose it’s no surprise he thinks it will work here too.

This is a member of the Royal Life Guard marching past Kongens Nytorv in Copenhagen for the changing of the guard. They end up at Amalienborg, home of the queen, at precisely noon.

I’ve shown you this before in colorful chart form, but today the Washington Post presents it in even more colorful map form. These three maps show you how good we’re being about staying at home over the past month:

We peaked on April 7 and have been backsliding ever since. By April 30, a mere six weeks after lockdowns started, we were already back to about where we were on April 1. This is partly due to ordinary human fatigue, but also due to President Trump and his buddies telling us that it’s time to get back to normal, come what may.

By the way, I occasionally get someone asking me, basically, if I’m so smart then what do I think should be done? But it’s not really a question of what I think. As near as I can tell, expert opinion is all but unanimous:

• Crush the curve. Keep lockdowns in place until—at minimum—the number of new cases has declined for 14 days in a row.
• Test and trace. With the number of infections under control, keep it there with an aggressive program of testing and contact tracing.

The fact that so many people are unaware of this simple recommendation doesn’t speak well for either our media or our public health communications. In any case, this only works if we massively build up our testing capacity, and that doesn’t seem to be a high priority in the halls of power in our nation’s capital.

Behold the CDC’s guidelines for reopening workplaces:

This was scheduled for release several days ago, but obviously that didn’t happen:

The Trump administration has shelved a document created by the nation’s top disease investigators with step-by-step advice to local authorities on how and when to reopen restaurants and other public places during the still-raging coronavirus outbreak….It was supposed to be published last Friday, but agency scientists were told the guidance “would never see the light of day,” according to a CDC official. The official was not authorized to talk to reporters and spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity.

I would like to think that Anthony Fauci was the anonymous source behind this leak, but I suppose not. In any case, the CDC deck has guidelines for reopening businesses, schools, restaurants, churches, and so forth, and we would do well to start meeting them before we throw open our doors. This, however, would slow down the reopening of America decreed by our president, so the guidelines were shoved down the oubliette. Welcome to Earth’s newest banana republic.

This morning California released its estimate of how badly the COVID-19 pandemic is going to blow a hole in its budget:

California’s government faces a $54.3-billion budget deficit through next summer according to an analysis released Thursday by advisors to Gov. Gavin Newsom, the deepest projected fiscal hole in state history.

….Newsom’s budget team forecasts a $41.2-billion drop in tax revenues compared to their estimates from just four months ago….Expenses are also projected to skyrocket. The fiscal report released Thursday assumes some $13 billion in higher state costs due to the pandemic.

You can expect to hear 50 different versions of this story before long. The California budget is a little over $200 billion, which means the shortfall is about 25 percent of the total. My guess is that this estimate will rise over time, perhaps ending at about 35 percent or so. Total state and local spending across the country comes to roughly $2 trillion, so if California turns out to be average it means a total shortfall across the nation of about $650 billion.

So that’s roughly our target in the next coronavirus rescue bill: approximately $650 billion in aid to state and local governments. Which makes this a perfect opportunity to do something we should have done long ago: federalize Medicaid. There’s never been a good reason that states should share this cost, which will probably come to at least $250 billion this year and next thanks to a surge in coronavirus spending. And since federalizing Medicaid would be a permanent reduction in state spending, no other bailout would be necessary. It would amount to $750 billion over three years, more than enough to cover this year’s shortfall. A 2-3 year bridge loan is all that would be necessary.