When is it safe to reopen the economy? One relevant metric is R₀, which tells us whether the spread of the virus is growing or shrinking. Anything above 1.0 means that each infected person is in turn infecting more than one person and the epidemic is still growing. Anything below 1.0 means that fewer people are being infected and the virus spread is starting to decline:

Morgan Stanley’s updated COVID model today puts the U.S. national R₀ equal to around 1.11 and the epidemic doubling time at about 43 days; reflecting a slowing epidemic, but one where spread is still expanding.

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) May 12, 2020

If this is true, we aren’t anywhere near to reopening. At the very least, we’d want to see a sustained R₀ of 0.9 or less since reopening is bound to increase the infection rate. Here’s what the Rt Tracker says about this on a state-by-state basis:

I think it’s safe to say that you shouldn’t consider reopening until your 90 percent error bars are fully below 0.9 at a minimum and stay there for a week or two. There is not a single state that hits this standard. Hell, there are only ten states where the error bars are even below 1.0. In his testimony today, Anthony Fauci agreed:

Dr. Fauci cautioned that more cases were inevitable as states eased lockdowns. He said the benefits of current therapeutics were modest and warned that there was no guarantee an effective vaccine would be available in the near future. “If certain areas prematurely open up, my concern is we might see spikes that turn into outbreaks,” he said during the hearing. “The consequences could be serious. Even in states that reopen with a deliberate pace…there is no doubt that when you pull back on mitigation, you will see some cases reappear.”

For the mild-mannered Fauci, this is about the equivalent of a lung-piercing scream: Don’t reopen yet! The epidemic will blow up again if you do.

But we’re reopening anyway. If we had competent leadership urging everyone to stay the course for at least another few weeks, things might be different. But we don’t and they aren’t. Anyone smart will continue to stay at home as much as possible regardless of what the crackpots in the White House say.

Here’s the coronavirus death toll through May 11. The numbers are on a steady decline everywhere but Canada. Germany has had an uptick over the past three days and is a little worried that it’s because they’ve eased their restrictions too much. The United States should be at 100,000 deaths by the end of next week.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here. The Public Health Agency of Sweden is here.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the Consumer Price Index declined 0.8 percent in April, mostly thanks to an oil glut that has caused an 18 percent drop in energy prices:

Economists typically prefer to look at the core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy because they’re too susceptible to outside forces that have nothing to do with actual inflationary pressures (bad harvests, oil embargoes, etc.). The core inflation rate in April ran at 1.4 percent.

That said, ordinary people should pay attention to the headline inflation rate because that’s what affects their actual daily lives. And while this is, I admit, a pretty small bit of good news in the middle of a global pandemic that’s being mismanaged in horrific proportions, it is a tiny bit of good news. These days, I’ll take what I can get.

Ringo Chiu/ZUMA

From the Washington Post:

Most White House officials will be asked to wear masks or face coverings in public spaces on complex grounds, a move to prevent the novel coronavirus from spreading further inside the presidential compound….The request does not apply to offices, however, and President Trump is unlikely to wear a mask or face covering, aides say.

President Trump wants everyone in the White House to wear a mask because he doesn’t want to get sick. But is he even willing to recommend that everyone else wear masks? Nope. That might dent his tough-guy-time-to-reopen image. Can’t have that, can we?

I took this picture a long time ago, and then spent months trying to get a better shot. But it never worked out. You need a full moon, good weather, an operating balloon, and just the right amount of light at dusk, and it never quite came together. Eventually I gave up, but the original is still sort of interesting.

This is the illustration that accompanied Petri's piece. Hilarious, isn't it?Tara Jacoby/Washington Post

Over the weekend, Alexandra Petri favored us with a humorous column about men who refuse to wear masks:

Men, are you worried that wearing a mask is “submission” and “muzzling yourself” and “looks weak, especially for men”? Do you think that “I don’t see it,” except possibly at a “mask facility”?

Well, worry no longer! Introducing: Masks For Him! We put the “mask” in “toxic maskulinity”!

….We offer many masks, ranging from the Ultimate Mask (a VHS copy of “Rambo” you can duct tape to your face) to the HYPER-ULTIMATE MASK (a VHS copy of “Rambo” you can staple to your face)….This World War I inspired mask is made of razor wire! This mask says, “Not only do I misunderstand science, but I also misunderstand history!” It may not block particles of any size, but any coronavirus that crawls over that barbed wire is a coronavirus you can respect.

Etc.

Ha ha ha. That’s hilarious. And before anyone tells me: Yes, I get that this is just a joke. Only a scold could possibly object.

Then call me a scold, because this kind of crap needs to stop. There are lots of men who feel silly wearing a mask, and it’s not because they’re admirers of Mussolini or full-bore Trumpies. They’re just ordinary men who were born and raised in the culture of contemporary America.

And we need to persuade them to wear masks. But how? I can think of several possibilities, and of those the worst imaginable way is to mock them in the pages of the Washington Post. That accomplishes nothing except to piss them off and ensure that they will never, ever wear a mask.

Is that worth it for the sake of a little joke among college-educated friends? Maybe so in other times—that’s your call—but not now. We’re in the middle of a pandemic and we need to figure out how to get people to do the right thing. What’s more, we need to figure it out fast. If you’re serious about that, you have a choice to make. On the one hand, you can keep up the stupid condescension that we love so much. Perhaps that makes you feel better. On the other hand, we could mount a real campaign to persuade people to wear masks. We could blanket the airwaves. We could use celebrities who appeal to all types. We could explain exactly what masks do. And we could do it all without mocking anyone. Any takers?

What’s the real unemployment rate?

April’s 14.7 percent unemployment rate, announced by the Labor Department last Friday, is awful by any standard. The official tally shows that unemployment increased by 15,938,000 people last month—to 23,078,000 overall—resulting in the highest jobless rate since the Great Depression. As depressing as that may be, it’s not the full story. The Labor Department also reported Friday that the number of employed Americans fell by 22,369,000 people in April. If you reconcile the gap between 22,369,000 and 15,938,000, you’ll find that the real unemployment rate is much worse. The actual unemployment rate for April was at least 18.6 percent.

You can click the link to read all the gruesome details, which I frankly don’t care about. We know what we’ve done to the economy, and the precise numbers don’t matter all that much.

However, after having to endure the 2016 campaign and Donald Trump’s endless claims that the government was lying about the unemployment rate blah blah blah,¹ I can’t help but get a bit of satisfaction from being able to turn that around on him. I guess it doesn’t take much these days to get a bit of satisfaction.

¹“Don’t believe these phony numbers,” Trump told supporters in February 2016. “The number is probably 28, 29, as high as 35 [percent]. In fact, I even heard recently 42 percent.” Other idiotic unemployment claims are collected here.

Here’s the coronavirus death toll through May 10. The US had a good day on Sunday, but keep in mind that we routinely show fewer deaths on weekends. This may or may not mean anything.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here. The Public Health Agency of Sweden is here.

A new paper estimates that if unemployment rises by 20 points—which is pretty likely—25 million people will lose their health insurance. Many will find replacement insurance from other sources, but more than a quarter of them won’t:

In states that accepted Medicaid expansion, 23 percent of those who lose health insurance will end up uninsured. That’s bad enough. But in states that refused expansion, 40 percent of those who lose their jobs and their insurance will end up uninsured.

This adds up to 7 million people who will be newly uninsured in the middle of the worst pandemic of the past century. And there’s no reason to believe that anyone in Washington DC plans to do anything about it.

I visited my mother yesterday, and by the end of two hours I was exhausted. This was the longest time—by far—I had worn a mask, and by the time I left I felt like I had been running up and down a staircase the entire time. This is why I need the space helmet that I outlined for you all a couple of weeks ago. Those of us who are weak breathers to begin with just can’t tolerate masks for long periods.

Naturally, though, as long as I was there I took some new kitten pictures. First, though, some disturbing news. Meowser, our surprise mother, had an appointment with the vet last week to ensure that we didn’t get any more surprise kittens, so of course she came home wearing a cone. She does not like the cone:

But here’s the disturbing part: the cats are working as a team. On Friday, the kittens apparently untied the knot holding the cone on so that Meowser could then shake it off. We could be in big trouble if this teamwork concept spreads, my friends. The cone has since been put back on, and I wrapped some tape around the knot, so hopefully we have foiled any future escape attempts.

Here is Stripey, one of the troublemakers:

Isn’t that an adorable picture? And check out those whiskers! Here is Blackie, hiding around a corner from the camera:

And here is Grayson, hanging out in the garage. The lighting may be lousy, but it is where all the food is kept:

Everybody is healthy and making trouble. What more can you ask from a litter of kittens?