Kevin Drum

A blog of my opinions. Plus charts and cats.

  • CEOs Are Doing Quite Well, Thank You

    June 3, 2020

    Are you wondering how our nation’s top CEOs are doing these days? The Wall Street Journal has you covered. Here’s their top ten for 2019:

    According to the Journal, “Median pay reached $13.1 million for CEOs of the biggest U.S. companies, setting a new record for the fifth year in a row. Most S&P 500 CEOs got raises of 8% or better during the year, while total shareholder return reached nearly 30%.” Life is good for corporations and the rich.

    POSTSCRIPT: Is it really true that median employee pay at Alphabet is $258,000? And $202,000 at Netflix? I wonder if either of them need a full-time blogger?

  • Awareness of Police Violence Against Protesters Goes Mainstream

    June 2, 2020

    I tweeted this a few minutes ago:

    I got some pushback, but I’ve read and seen plenty of examples of this growing recognition on cable news and mainstream newspapers. You won’t hear it on Fox News or right-wing talk radio, of course, but it’s definitely gotten a foothold in the mainstream news. Much of this, I think, is due to the extensive availability of smartphone video, which is making the police response to the protests available in a way that wasn’t possible even ten years ago.

    However, even if the media is starting to cover this more widely, is it becoming a mainstream view among the public? Here’s the first poll I’ve seen on the subject. The question is not specifically about police actions at the protests, but the poll was done over the weekend when protests were all over the news:

    In this day and age, I’d say it’s striking that even 31 percent of Republicans think police violence is a bigger problem than public violence. And among the all-important independents, a solid majority feels this way.

    Other polls will weigh in over the next week, which should give us a better view of what people think about the police response to the protests. This will, obviously, depend a lot on how things go over the coming week as well as media coverage of the protests. We’ll see.

  • Nothing You Saw on TV Last Night Actually Happened

    June 2, 2020

    There will be no more of this nonsense where the president might be able to see it. There's now a big iron fence completely surrounding Lafayette Square.Stefani Reynolds/CNP via ZUMA

    Oh hey, remember that federal cops forcibly cleared Lafayette Square last night with rubber bullets and tear gas so that President Trump could walk over to St. John’s Episcopal Church for a photo op? It totally didn’t happen that way:

    It’s good to set the record straight. I guess it was just a gigantic coincidence that they happened to clear the park just minutes before Trump headed over to the church. But sometimes life is like that, amirite?

    And why did Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, accompany Trump dressed in battle fatigues? Ha ha, that’s a funny story:

    A senior defense official indicates [Secretary of Defense Mark Esper] and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Milley didn’t plan to accompany Donald Trump on his walk across Lafayette Park for a photo op outside St. John’s Church yesterday. They had left the Pentagon and were en route to the FBI field office to work with the director and AG “to observe and provide leadership.” After they left, the White House requested they redirect there to update Trump.

    While they were there, as that meeting concluded, the president indicated an interest in viewing the troops that were outside. And the secretary and chairman went with him to do so. That’s the extent of what was taking place and at that point they were part of the group that was with the president as he continued through LaFayette Park.

    So (a) Trump tricked them into coming to the White House, (b) Trump lied to them about viewing “the troops,” and (c) they fell for it and accompanied Trump all the way to the church even though no troops were there to inspect.

    Meanwhile, Trump is posing this morning for yet another religiously-themed photo op at the John Paul II shrine despite the fact that the Archbishop of Washington basically told him to go to hell:

    I find it baffling and reprehensible that any Catholic facility would allow itself to be so egregiously misused and manipulated in a fashion that violates our religious principles, which call us to defend the rights of all people even those with whom we might disagree. Saint Pope John Paul II was an ardent defender of the rights and dignity of human beings. His legacy bears vivid witness to that truth. He certainly would not condone the use of tear gas and other deterrents to silence, scatter or intimidate them for a photo opportunity in front of a place of worship and peace.

    Needless to say, Trump doesn’t care. He went to the shrine, CNN followed along dutifully, and he got his photo op for use in the fall campaign.

  • CBO Forecast Suggests Need For More Huge Stimulus Bills

    June 2, 2020

    The Congressional Budget Office has produced a forecast of economic growth that takes the COVID-19 pandemic into account:

    By the end of 2021, rapid growth means we’re about 1.5 percent below the level we’d be at without the pandemic. Obviously that’s not great, but it’s not too bad either. So how long does it take to make up the rest of the difference?

    We don’t get back fully to normal until 2029. (Note that this chart is in dollars. $300 billion is equal to 1.5 percent of GDP.)

    Now, the economists at the CBO are good, but there are plenty of other good economists out there too. What’s more, this is an unusually hard forecast to do. This one shouldn’t be taken as gospel unless it gets widely confirmed. It’s also worth noting that this forecast assumes COVID-19 is on the wane and the economy will steadily open up throughout the year. This is, obviously, far from a certainty.

    All that said, if you believe a forecast like this then it’s pretty obvious how to respond: with a lot more spending. There’s not a whole lot left that monetary policy can do, and there’s no reason we should have to wait until 2029 for full recovery.

    Job 1, as always, is to get the virus under control, since there will be no recovery at all without that. Job 2 is another big spending bill this year and probably yet another one next year. We can argue about what to spend the money on (aid to states, aid to small businesses, infrastructure, etc.), but there shouldn’t be much argument that it needs to done. This is no time to start clutching our pearls over the deficit.

  • Today in Four Tweets

    June 1, 2020

    This is probably a Bible. Probably.Shawn Thew/CNP via ZUMA

    President Trump addressed the press today, telling them that law enforcement must “dominate the streets” by establishing “an overwhelming law enforcement presence.” If mayors and governors weren’t willing to do this, he said, “I will deploy the United States military and quickly solve the problem for them.” But in the background you can hear sirens and the pop of guns. Why?

    That’s right: The White House ordered a peaceful demonstration at Lafayette Square to be broken up quickly so that Trump could walk across the street for a photo-op at St. John’s Episcopal Church:

    And here’s the picture Trump wants us all to publish:

    Oh, and it wasn’t local police who gassed the crowd to break it up. It was federal law enforcement officers:

    But Trump got his photo-op and he knows that this is all that matters.

  • Lunchtime Photo

    June 1, 2020

    Downtown Los Angeles in quieter times. Grabbing a quick taco with a friend at 2:30 am.

    March 10, 2020 — Los Angeles, California