Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: April 6 Update

Here’s the coronavirus growth rate through April 6. Italy is solidly past their peak and declining at a good clip. Germany had a bad day and now looks a little farther away from their peak than I thought yesterday. The data from France is so weird that I can’t make sense of it:

There’s an almost perfect linear increase for two weeks, followed by a sudden explosion, with deaths doubling over the course of three days. Unless I did my arithmetic wrong, this looks like some kind of reporting error from the French authorities.


How to read the charts: Let’s use France as an example. For them, Day 0 was March 5, when they surpassed one death per 10 million by recording their sixth death. They are currently at Day 32; total deaths are at 1,488x their initial level; and they have recorded a total of 133.2 deaths per million so far. As the chart shows, this is above where Italy was on their Day 32.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

Fact:

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