Here’s My Estimate of How Many People Will Lose Coverage Under RepubliCare

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Brookings has done an analysis of RepubliCare and estimates that it will reduce coverage by at least 15 million people compared to Obamacare, and probably more. Their estimate is based on previous CBO forecasts of the effects of provisions that are in the Republican bill.

My own guess is closer to 20 million. I figure I might as well put my money where my mouth is, so here’s how I think the CBO forecast will turn out:

I’m actually being generous here since this forecast assumes the individual insurance market won’t implode completely. Will CBO have the guts to make a forecast like this? We’ll see next week.

Oh, and premiums will go up a lot too. But that’s an estimate for another day.