Megan McArdle writes today that if Republicans really follow though on their insane threat to allow the United States to default on its debt, it would probably be good for Democrats in the 2012 election. A reader asks: if that’s the case, then why are Democrats fighting so hard against it? Why not just let the default happen, blame Republicans, and then reap the benefits next November? Megan replies:
I think some version of this question is going through many conservative minds. But it commits a fundamental error: it assumes that this is some sort of zero-sum game….What the people asking this question are missing is that the budget needn’t be zero-sum: it can be negative-sum. It is possible for the Democrats to lose without the Republicans winning. Both sides can end up worse off.
Nope. In this case, we’re talking about a strictly zero-sum outcome set: 435 House seats, 33 Senate seats, and the presidency. In pure partisan terms, if one side loses ground, the other side gains. That’s completely independent of how default affects the country more generally.
So why are Democrats fighting against default? “Leave aside the naive thoughts that Democrats might be trying to avoid default because they, like, care something about the honor of their nation,” says Megan. Indeed. I leave the rest of the blog post in the able hands of my commenters.