The Long and Warming Road

Who coined “the greenhouse effect”? Which year was the hottest on record? A timeline of climate change milestones, from 1800 to now.

Photo: G.S. Callendar: University of East Anglia/G.S. Callendar Archive: Al Gore: Participant Media: Carter: Bettmann/Corbis

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1800: At the dawn of the industrial revolution, planet’s CO2 concentration is around 280 ppm—38% lower than today.

1896: Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius publishes first study tying CO2 emissions to fossil fuels.

1937: University of Wisconsin geographer Glenn Trewartha helps coin the term “greenhouse effect.”

GS Callendar

1938: English engineer G.S. Callendar asserts that CO2 increases are warming the planet, suggests this will make cold areas more habitable.

1958: Scientists begin to track CO2 levels and soon observe increases. First official studies show level at 315 ppm.

May 30, 2004: Climate change dystopia The Day After Tomorrow released; will bring in more than $544 million.

State of Fear

December 7, 2004: Michael Crichton’s State of Fear, which features climate change as environmentalist hoax, published; Bush reported to have “avidly read” book.

February 16, 2005: Kyoto Protocol goes into effect for 130 countries.

May 2005: Mother Jones reveals ExxonMobil spent more than $8 million from ’00 to ’03 funding climate change deniers.

December 8, 2006: Inhofe’s Senate committee releases 68-page “A Skeptic’s Guide to Debunking Global Warming Alarmism.”

An Inconvenient Truth

1960: Soviet Union publishes essay titled “Man Versus Climate” that advocates deliberate planet heating to unthaw Arctic and boost farm output.

April 22, 1970: First Earth Day. US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) created 5 months later.

1975: National Academy of Sciences report warns of “serious worldwide cooling” in the next 100 years, sparking fears of new ice age.

July 1981: A young US represent-ative from Tennessee, Albert Gore Jr., organizes climate change hearing on Capitol Hill. Media attendance sparse.

January 2007: New House Speaker Nancy Pelosi creates climate change committee.

2007: IPCC releases fourth report, concluding again that global warming is caused by humans.

May 7, 2007: Three decades ahead of projections, scientists report record lows in Arctic summer ice.

October 12, 2007: IPCC and Al Gore awarded Nobel Peace Prize.

December 15, 2007: Papua New Guinea’s delegate tells US reps at Bali climate negotiations to step up or “get out of the way.”


Jimmy Carter

1985: Scientists at Villach conference in Austria reach consensus that global warming is happening and international treaties needed to curb emissions.

1988: UN-led Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is established to assess state of knowledge on climate change.

February 1, 2008: ExxonMobil reports $40.6 billion profit—the largest for any US company ever.

February 2008: An iceberg bigger than Manhattan breaks off the Wilkins Ice Shelf in Antarctica.


Global warming has begun

1989: National Association of Manufacturers along with oil and auto companies form Global Climate Coalition to fight carbon restrictions.

1992: At Rio Earth Summit, US blocks calls for serious action; President George H.W. Bush declares, “The American way of life is not negotiable.”

1995: UN-led international climate negotiations begin.

December 11, 1997: First global climate treaty, Kyoto Protocol, adopted.

November 12, 1998: President Bill Clinton signs the Kyoto Protocol, a symbolic gesture; Senate has already rejected it 95-to-0.

March 2001: President George W. Bush withdraws US from Kyoto treaty.

2001: Hottest year on record.

July 28, 2003: US Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) says on Senate floor that global warming is “the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people.”

Summer 2003: Heat wave hits Europe; 35,000 die.

April 2008: Hansen warns that a CO2 concentration over 350 ppm isn’t compatible with “a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted.”

2008: Ties 2001 as hottest year on record.

February 1, 2009: NOAA finds that effects of climate change will be “largely irreversible” for more than 1,000 years after emissions stop.

June 26, 2009: American Clean Energy and Security Act, a.k.a. Waxman-Markey bill, passes House.

2009: Conservative Washington Post columnist George Will pens several syndicated pieces saying planet is actually cooling; readers, scientists go ballistic; Post reporters so embarrassed, they debunk claims in paper’s news pages.

April 2009: Global CO2 concentration reaches 387 ppm, projected to reach 866 ppm by century’s end if unchecked.

December 7-18, 2009: Nations to meet in Copenhagen to negotiate successor treaty to Kyoto Protocol.

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Today, reader support makes up about two-thirds of our budget, allows us to dig deep on stories that matter, and lets us keep our reporting free for everyone. If you value what you get from Mother Jones, please join us with a tax-deductible donation today so we can keep on doing the type of journalism 2022 demands.

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